The Financial Game Plan projects your profitability and cash flow from the levers you actually control - nCAC, retention, and AOV. Built for DTC operators who need answers, not assumptions.
Most DTC brands plan with high-level revenue targets and fixed margin assumptions. That works until you try to scale - and the cash doesn't follow the spreadsheet.
The model is built around the three levers that actually drive DTC profitability - nothing more, nothing less.
Product data, AOV, and variable costs. The model calculates weighted COGS and margins by new vs. repeat customers automatically.
Set your nCAC with Meta/Google budget splits, then apply efficiency decay to model diminishing returns at scale. Map your 12-month repurchase rates.
Daily revenue model with new + repeat customer segmentation. Monthly P&L across scenarios. 13-week cash flow including inventory, deposits, and payables.
Each component can run in modeled mode (build from detailed inputs) or decision mode (plug in your numbers directly).
SKU-level pricing, COGS, and sales distribution by new vs. repeat customers. Changing your product mix dynamically updates AOV and margins.
Drives AOV + COGSModeled: blended discounts, refund allowance, shipping revenue, units per transaction. Or plug in a decision AOV and skip the detail.
Modeled or DecisionUnit COGS (derived from product mix), fulfillment and carrier fees per order, and payment processing (2.9-4% depending on BNPL volume).
Auto-calculated from product dataModel acquisition cost from Meta/Google CPMs, CTRs, and conversion rates. Apply a decay factor (0.15-0.4) to forecast how nCAC worsens as spend scales.
The lever most brands ignoreMap repurchase rates across 12-month windows. Or use Shopify's return customer rate for a simpler view. Retention compounds - this is where growth lives.
12-month repurchase windowsCombines all five inputs into daily projections. New + repeat customer orders, monthly P&L, base/worst/best scenarios, and a 13-week cash flow forecast.
P&L + 13-week cash flowEvery component feeds forward. Change one lever and the entire model recalculates - P&L, cash flow, and scenarios.
Join the community, get a custom Financial Game Plan, or bundle both for the best value.
The Financial Game Plan comes from the same methodology used to advise 8- and 9-figure DTC brands.
"The same forecasting methodology used in the Optimal Numbers Program - adapted for operators who want to control their own numbers."
Stop planning from revenue targets. Start planning from the levers you control - nCAC, retention, and AOV. The Financial Game Plan shows you what happens next.